(5)Data learning and expert judgment in a Bayesian belief network for aiding human reliability assessment in offshore decommissioning risk assessment
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Mei Ling Fam a,d,∗ , Dimitrios Konovessis b, XuHong He c, Lin Seng Ong d
a Lloyds Register Singapore, 1 Fusionopolis Place, 09–11 Galaxis, Singapore 138522, Singapore
b Singapore Institute of Technology SIT@Dover, 10 Dover Drive Singapore 138683, Singapore
c Lloyd’s Register Consulting, Landsvaegen 50A, 172 63, Sundbyberg, Sweden
d School of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, 50 Nanyang Avenue, Singapore 639798, Singapore
Received 27 April 2020; received in revised form 2 September 2020; accepted 2 September 2020
Available online 4 September 2020
Abstract
Decommissioning of offshore facilities involve changing risk profiles at different decommissioning phases. Bayesian Belief Networks
(BBN) are used as part of the proposed risk assessment method to capture the multiple interactions of a decommissioning activity. The BBN
is structured from the data learning of an accident database and a modification of the BBN nodes to incorporate human reliability and barrier
performance modelling. The analysis covers one case study of one area of decommissioning operations by extrapolating well workover data
to well plugging and abandonment. Initial analysis from well workover data, of a 5-node BBN provided insights on two different levels of
severity of an accident, the ’Accident’ and ’Incident’ level, and on its respective profiles of the initiating events and the investigation-reported
human causes. The initial results demonstrate that the data learnt from the database can be used to structure the BBN, give insights on how
human reliability pertaining to well activities can be modelled, and that the relative frequencies from the count analysis can act as initial
data input for the proposed nodes. It is also proposed that the integrated treatment of various sources of information (database and expert
judgement) through a BBN model can support the risk assessment of a dynamic situation such as offshore decommissioning.
© 2020 Shanghai Jiaotong University. Published by Elsevier B.V.
This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/)
Keywords: Bayesian belief network; Human reliability assessment; Expert judgement; Data learning.